A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions.

Ebi Kristie L, , Hallegatte Stephane , Kram Tom , Arnell Nigel W, Carter Timothy R , Edmonds Jae , Kriegler Elmar, Mathur Ritu , O?Neill Brian C , Riahi Keywan , Winkler Harald , Van Vuuren Detlef P , Zwickel Timm
Climatic Change, Vol 122( 3), 363-372p.
2014

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

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Climate change
Socio-economic pathways