WSDS 2026 Thematic Track: India’s Energy Transition Scenarios in the Age of Security: Navigating Growth, Resilience and Climate Action across Multiple Possible Futures

(i) Problem statement and state of play

India’s energy transition is unfolding at a time of profound global uncertainty. As the country advances towards its ambition of becoming a developed economy by 2047 and achieving netzero emissions by 2070, it must respond simultaneously to rising energy demand, affordability and access imperatives, and accelerating climate risks. These challenges are magnified by structural shifts in the global system: intensifying geopolitical tensions, trade and supplychain fragmentation, rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), and a narrowing window to limit global warming, with CO₂ emissions yet to decisively decline.‑zero emissions by 2070, it must respond simultaneously to rising energy demand, affordability and access imperatives, and accelerating climate risks. These challenges are magnified by structural shifts in the global system: intensifying geopolitical tensions, trade and supply‑chain fragmentation, rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), and a narrowing window to limit global warming, with CO₂ emissions yet to decisively decline. Against this backdrop, the future no longer points to a single, linear pathway. Instead, multiple plausible global trajectories are emerging, each with distinct implications for growth, energy systems and climate outcomes. Shell’s refreshed Energy Security Scenarios 2026 capture this uncertainty through three contrasting but plausible worlds: Surge, characterised by AIdriven productivity and accelerated economic growth; Archipelagos, where national security, selfreliance and fragmented geopolitics shape energy decisions; and Horizon, a normative pathway aligned with the Paris Agreement and global netzero by midcentury. These scenarios are not forecasts, but structured lenses to stresstest choices, highlight tradeoffs and inform more resilient decisionmaking.‑driven productivity and accelerated economic growth; ‑reliance and fragmented geopolitics shape energy decisions; and ‑zero by mid‑century. These scenarios are not forecasts, but structured lenses to stress‑test choices, highlight trade‑offs and inform more resilient decision‑making. The session will witness the unveiling and launch of India Sketch 2026, that applies these global scenarios to India’s energy system. It shows that while all three futures- Surge, Archipelagos and Horizon— deliver continued economic growth and expanding energy demand, they diverge sharply in terms of energy mix, pace of electrification, role of fossil fuels, emergence of lowcarbon fuels, and reliance on carbon removals. India’s strategic challenge, therefore, is not to “pick a winner” among scenarios, but to design policies, investments and institutions that remain robust across AIaccelerated growth, a securityfirst world, and a faster global push towards netzero.‑carbon fuels, and reliance on carbon removals. India’s strategic challenge, therefore, is not to “pick a winner” among scenarios, but to design policies, investments and institutions that remain robust across AI‑accelerated growth, a security‑first world, and a faster global push towards net‑zero.

(ii) Objectives of the thematic track

The thematic track seeks to:

• Present and interpret Shell’s refreshed Energy Security Scenarios—Surge, Archipelagos and Horizon—through an India lens.
• Explore how different global futures could shape India’s energy demand, energy security, industrial competitiveness and emissions trajectory.
• Examine the tradeoffs and synergies between economic growth, energy resilience and climate action across these scenarios. ‑offs and synergies between.
• Identify “noregret” priorities and strategic choices that can strengthen India’s energy transition under conditions of uncertainty. ‑regret” priorities and strategic choices that can strengthen India’s energy transition under conditions of uncertainty.
• Foster dialogue among policymakers, industry and think tanks on building a resilient and investible energy pathway for India.

(iii) Questions - 3-4 questions that will guide the discussions.

• What do the three Energy Security Scenarios—Surge, Archipelagos and Horizon—tell us about the different ways India’s energy transition could unfold, and where do their implications converge or diverge for India?
• In a world of AIaccelerated growth (Surge), how can India meet rapidly rising electricity and industrial energy demand while managing affordability, infrastructure constraints and emissions?‑accelerated growth (Surge), how can India meet rapidly rising electricity and industrial energy demand while managing affordability, infrastructure constraints and emissions?
• In a more fragmented, securityfirst global environment (Archipelagos), how should India balance energy selfreliance, diversification of supply, and continued progress on decarbonisation?‑first global environment (Archipelagos), how should India balance energy self‑reliance, diversification of supply, and continued progress on decarbonisation?
• What policy, market and financing frameworks would be required for India to move closer to a Horizontype outcome, particularly in hardtoabate sectors, lowcarbon fuels and carbon removals—while remaining resilient if the world falls short of global netzero ambitions?‑type outcome, particularly in hard‑to‑abate sectors, low‑carbon fuels and carbon removals—while remaining resilient if the world falls short of global net‑zero ambitions?

About the World Sustainable Development Summit (WSDS)

The World Sustainable Development Summit (WSDS) is the annual flagship Track II initiative organized by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). Instituted in 2001, the Summit series has a legacy of over two decades for making ‘sustainable development’ a globally shared goal. The only independently convened international Summit on sustainable development and environment, based in the Global South, WSDS strives to provide long-term solutions for the benefit of global communities by assembling the world’s most enlightened leaders and thinkers on a single platform. The 25th edition of the annual flagship event of The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)—the World Sustainable Development Summit (WSDS)—will be held from 25-27 February 2026 in New Delhi. The deliberations of the Silver Jubilee edition of the Summit will focus on the umbrella theme of Parivartan: Transformations: Vision, Voices and Values for Sustainable Development.