Will the Rs 1 lakh car be an environmental nightmare

The recently concluded Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change came up with a final declaration that highlighted the need for "deep cuts" in emissions of greenhouse gases to combat the problem of global climate change. The tone and content of the Bali Conference represented a perceptible departure from previous such meetings, in view of the major impacts of climate change assessed in great detail in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (lPCC).

Essentially, the problem of climate change, which is the result of cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the beginning of industrialisation, represents only a part of the-much larger problem of unsustainable development. While the world has achieved remarkable success through innovation in providing the means for satisfying the needs of the human race, there are also several distortions which have taken place and grown as a result.

In the case of transport, for instance, both the developed world (most notably exemplified by the situation in North America) and in the developing world, there appears be a race towards larger ownership of private vehicles and their use for transportation related to occupational as well as recreational activities.

Between •1950 and 1997, the automobile fleet of the world increased from 50 million vehicles to 580 million vehicles, five times faster than the growth in population. The transport sector is responsible for 23 per cent of world's energy-related GHG emissions, with per cent of this share coming from road transport. Of greater concern is the projection that carbon emissions would be about 80 per cent higher than current levels by 2030. This, therefore, represents one sector where major changes are expected to take place to reduce GHG emissions. It is likely, therefore, that the transport sector across the world will undergo radical transformation.

We in India have been largely neglecting the provision of public transport, as a result of which firstly, those who do not have the means cannot afford vehicular transportation, with severe restrictions in their mobility.

Secondly, the rate of growth of private vehicles also impinges seriously on traffic congestion and air quality. The proliferation of small cars with higher incomes will lead to a massive increase in their population, exaggerating these problems with nightmarish consequences both within and between cities. While the worldwide desire to own motor vehicles is something that is unlikely to change, the provision of public transport would have a major impact in reducing car usage.

Hence, the impending growth in private vehicles only adds to the imperative of providing massive expansion of public transport to wean away passengers from driving in the absence of choices. The welfare benefits of public transport far outweigh any measure of GDP growth or employment consequences of the runaway growth of car ownership and usage, a fact that governments would do well to understand and act on.