Page 18 - Transitions in Indian Electricity Sector- A Report by TERI
P. 18
TRANSITIONS IN INDIAN E LECTRICITY SECTOR 2017–2030
Plant Load Factor
3.13 The assumptions on Plant Load Factor and Capacity Utilization Factor remain the same as in HRES scenario
for all the energy sources.
New Capacity Addition
3.14 Once the PLF of coal based thermal power plant reaches ~77% it is assumed that all unmet demand will be
met from new coal capacity.
Assessment of Coal Demand
3.15 By assuming the total generation needed from non-coal sources, the results of the exercise lead to generation
needed from coal-based generation. The PLF of the entire coal fleet as well as the coal requirement till 2030
has been worked out taking in to consideration the efficiency of the coal plant, PLF and grade of coal.
Efficiency
3.16 During the 12th Plan, capacity addition from super-critical technology is likely to contribute about 39% of
the total capacity addition (33,490 MW) in the coal-fired thermal power plants (CEA, 2016). Further, with the
addition of 50, 025 MW, the share of super-critical plant capacity is expected to increase to 31% of the total
coal-based installed capacity. This share could be even higher if capacity additions based on super-critical
plants are made to make up for the plants which will be retired between 2022 and 2027. In the past, the
subcritical technology of Indian coal-fired fleet had an average efficiency of ~31% as compared to the world
average of 35.1% (CEA & AF Mercados EMI, 2013). Moreover, the high ash content in Indian coal inevitably leads
to efficiency loss. There has been some efficiency improvement in 2013-14 (34%) (CEA, 2016). Considering
these factors, an efficiency of 34% has been assumed which increases to ~37% in 2022 and remains constant
thereafter.
Specific Coal Consumption
3.17 The specific coal consumption in the country varies depending on the grade of coal being used, age,
technology, and size of the plant and efficiency of the operations. To assess the grade of coal, the exercise
took note of various grades of non-coking coal which were despatched by coal companies during 2014-
15 and 2015-16. The two grades with the most quantity of domestic coal despatched during the last two
years were G11 grade (4000 kCal/kg-4200 kCal/kg) and G12 grade (3700 kCal/kg-4000 kCal/kg) (CCO, 2016)
(CCO, 2015). In view of this, the GCV of 4000 kCal/kg which is the upper bound of the G12 grade and the
lower bound of the G11 grade was assumed.
Findings
High Renewables Scenario
Impact on Renewables
3.18 In HRES, the share of coal-based installed capacity decreases from 49% of the total installed capacity in 2022
to ~18% in 2030, while the share of installed capacity of renewables increases from 32% in 2022 to 72% in
2030. The share of installed capacity of solar plant alone in 2030 comes to ~45% of the total capacity. The
share of wind installed capacity meanwhile increases from 12% in 2022 to 27% in 2030 (Exhibit 3.1 & 3.2).
Considering that unmet demand from 2027 is met from renewables, there is a sharp spike in growth of
installed capacity of solar and wind plants between 2026 and 2027 of about 81%. The rate of capacity addition
for both sources though taper after the sharp spike in 2027.
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Plant Load Factor
3.13 The assumptions on Plant Load Factor and Capacity Utilization Factor remain the same as in HRES scenario
for all the energy sources.
New Capacity Addition
3.14 Once the PLF of coal based thermal power plant reaches ~77% it is assumed that all unmet demand will be
met from new coal capacity.
Assessment of Coal Demand
3.15 By assuming the total generation needed from non-coal sources, the results of the exercise lead to generation
needed from coal-based generation. The PLF of the entire coal fleet as well as the coal requirement till 2030
has been worked out taking in to consideration the efficiency of the coal plant, PLF and grade of coal.
Efficiency
3.16 During the 12th Plan, capacity addition from super-critical technology is likely to contribute about 39% of
the total capacity addition (33,490 MW) in the coal-fired thermal power plants (CEA, 2016). Further, with the
addition of 50, 025 MW, the share of super-critical plant capacity is expected to increase to 31% of the total
coal-based installed capacity. This share could be even higher if capacity additions based on super-critical
plants are made to make up for the plants which will be retired between 2022 and 2027. In the past, the
subcritical technology of Indian coal-fired fleet had an average efficiency of ~31% as compared to the world
average of 35.1% (CEA & AF Mercados EMI, 2013). Moreover, the high ash content in Indian coal inevitably leads
to efficiency loss. There has been some efficiency improvement in 2013-14 (34%) (CEA, 2016). Considering
these factors, an efficiency of 34% has been assumed which increases to ~37% in 2022 and remains constant
thereafter.
Specific Coal Consumption
3.17 The specific coal consumption in the country varies depending on the grade of coal being used, age,
technology, and size of the plant and efficiency of the operations. To assess the grade of coal, the exercise
took note of various grades of non-coking coal which were despatched by coal companies during 2014-
15 and 2015-16. The two grades with the most quantity of domestic coal despatched during the last two
years were G11 grade (4000 kCal/kg-4200 kCal/kg) and G12 grade (3700 kCal/kg-4000 kCal/kg) (CCO, 2016)
(CCO, 2015). In view of this, the GCV of 4000 kCal/kg which is the upper bound of the G12 grade and the
lower bound of the G11 grade was assumed.
Findings
High Renewables Scenario
Impact on Renewables
3.18 In HRES, the share of coal-based installed capacity decreases from 49% of the total installed capacity in 2022
to ~18% in 2030, while the share of installed capacity of renewables increases from 32% in 2022 to 72% in
2030. The share of installed capacity of solar plant alone in 2030 comes to ~45% of the total capacity. The
share of wind installed capacity meanwhile increases from 12% in 2022 to 27% in 2030 (Exhibit 3.1 & 3.2).
Considering that unmet demand from 2027 is met from renewables, there is a sharp spike in growth of
installed capacity of solar and wind plants between 2026 and 2027 of about 81%. The rate of capacity addition
for both sources though taper after the sharp spike in 2027.
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