Page 17 - Transitions in Indian Electricity Sector- A Report by TERI
P. 17
TRANSITIONS IN INDIAN E LECTRICITY SECTOR 2017–2030
Plant Load Factor
3.8 Based on a review of the Plant Load Factor (PLF)/Capacity Utilization Factor (CUF) for nuclear and hydro power
plants since 2008-09, an average PLF/CUF of 75% and 35% respectively has been assumed for the period
between 2016-17 and 2029-30. For gas-based plants, prevailing PLF of about ~22% has been considered. In
view of limited availability of gas, operation of these plants has been contemplated for 6 hours in a day. In the
case of solar PV, a CUF of 19% has been assumed as per the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)
tariff order (CERC, 2016). A degradation of 0.8% has been assumed on the generation (NCPRE & NISE , 2014).
As per the CERC tariff order (2016), the CUF for wind energy ranges between 20% and 32%, depending on the
zones. Since most of the new wind plants to be set up to meet the target of 60,000 MW are expected to be
installed in zone 3, a CUF of 25% has been assumed.
New Capacity Addition
3.9 It has been assumed that once existing generation capacity meets the anticipated demand and the PLF of coal
plants increases to ~80%, entire unmet demand will be met via capacity additions in renewables. To bifurcate
sourcing of demand between wind generation and solar generation a weighted average of the CUF and the
capacity in 2022 has been assumed.
Low Renewable Energy Scenario (LRES)
3.10 In this scenario, a lower trajectory renewable capacity has been assumed in view of the challenges to be
addressed and lack of certainty about solar plus battery prices achieving grid parity.
Capacity Addition
3.11 In this scenario, aggregate capacity of renewables has been considered as 125 GW by 2022. This is consistent
with one of the scenarios mentioned in the draft NEP. Beyond 2022, renewable capacity addition at the rate
of 20 GW per year has been considered until 2027, with proportion of solar to wind capacity being 1.2:1 in
line with their relative proportion considered in 2022. With such an assumption, cumulative wind and solar
installed capacity totals to 170 GW in 2025. Beyond 2027 and until 2030, the capacity addition has been
assumed at 25 GW per year in such a manner that the proportion of solar capacity to wind capacity is 1.6:1.
3.12 The trajectory for coal installed capacity in this scenario is similar to that in the HRES, until its PLF increases to
~77% (in 2025). Beyond 2025, generation from renewables is capped and all unmet demand is met through
capacity addition in coal-fired thermal power plants. The installed capacity as well as additions for gas, nuclear
and hydropower remain the same as in the HRES.
Table 3.3: Installed Capacity under LRES (MW)
Sources Anticipated
Solar 2022 2027 2030
Wind
Coal 60,000 1,14,545 1,61,420
Gas
Nuclear 50,000 95,455 1,22,727
Hydro
2,48,513 3,19,628 4,74,855
29,969 29,969 29,969
9,580 14,380 14,380
58,131 70,131 70,131
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Plant Load Factor
3.8 Based on a review of the Plant Load Factor (PLF)/Capacity Utilization Factor (CUF) for nuclear and hydro power
plants since 2008-09, an average PLF/CUF of 75% and 35% respectively has been assumed for the period
between 2016-17 and 2029-30. For gas-based plants, prevailing PLF of about ~22% has been considered. In
view of limited availability of gas, operation of these plants has been contemplated for 6 hours in a day. In the
case of solar PV, a CUF of 19% has been assumed as per the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)
tariff order (CERC, 2016). A degradation of 0.8% has been assumed on the generation (NCPRE & NISE , 2014).
As per the CERC tariff order (2016), the CUF for wind energy ranges between 20% and 32%, depending on the
zones. Since most of the new wind plants to be set up to meet the target of 60,000 MW are expected to be
installed in zone 3, a CUF of 25% has been assumed.
New Capacity Addition
3.9 It has been assumed that once existing generation capacity meets the anticipated demand and the PLF of coal
plants increases to ~80%, entire unmet demand will be met via capacity additions in renewables. To bifurcate
sourcing of demand between wind generation and solar generation a weighted average of the CUF and the
capacity in 2022 has been assumed.
Low Renewable Energy Scenario (LRES)
3.10 In this scenario, a lower trajectory renewable capacity has been assumed in view of the challenges to be
addressed and lack of certainty about solar plus battery prices achieving grid parity.
Capacity Addition
3.11 In this scenario, aggregate capacity of renewables has been considered as 125 GW by 2022. This is consistent
with one of the scenarios mentioned in the draft NEP. Beyond 2022, renewable capacity addition at the rate
of 20 GW per year has been considered until 2027, with proportion of solar to wind capacity being 1.2:1 in
line with their relative proportion considered in 2022. With such an assumption, cumulative wind and solar
installed capacity totals to 170 GW in 2025. Beyond 2027 and until 2030, the capacity addition has been
assumed at 25 GW per year in such a manner that the proportion of solar capacity to wind capacity is 1.6:1.
3.12 The trajectory for coal installed capacity in this scenario is similar to that in the HRES, until its PLF increases to
~77% (in 2025). Beyond 2025, generation from renewables is capped and all unmet demand is met through
capacity addition in coal-fired thermal power plants. The installed capacity as well as additions for gas, nuclear
and hydropower remain the same as in the HRES.
Table 3.3: Installed Capacity under LRES (MW)
Sources Anticipated
Solar 2022 2027 2030
Wind
Coal 60,000 1,14,545 1,61,420
Gas
Nuclear 50,000 95,455 1,22,727
Hydro
2,48,513 3,19,628 4,74,855
29,969 29,969 29,969
9,580 14,380 14,380
58,131 70,131 70,131
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