Page 16 - Transitions in Indian Electricity Sector- A Report by TERI
P. 16
TRANSITIONS IN INDIAN E LECTRICITY SECTOR 2017–2030
quantum jump in renewable capacity addition contemplated by the Government of India , another scenario
with a lower trajectory of RE capacity addition has been considered. The study takes into consideration
capacity addition and generation from wind and solar sources only, considering that the generation from bio
power, small hydro and waste-to-energy is not substantial in the energy mix.
High Renewable Growth Scenario (HRES)
3.4 Under this scenario, renewable capacity addition is given higher priority than other sources of power.
Considering the quantum of renewables planned to be added to the grid, it is here in that by 2027, issues
pertaining to managing the variable and intermittent nature of renewable generation would get addressed.
It is also assumed that energy storage technology would become viable beyond 2027 such that the price of
electricity from renewable energy storage achieves parity with the price of electricity generated from domestic
coal sources at prices below INR 5/kWh.
Capacity Addition
3.5 The high renewable energy scenario is based on the premise that capacity from renewable energy meets
target capacity addition of 175 GW by 2022. Beyond 2022, a capacity addition of 25 GW per year has been
assumed for renewables (wind and solar) until existing capacity meets anticipated demand. To meet unmet
demand beyond 2026, this scenario assumes capacity addition in both wind and solar, presuming that storage
technology has become viable. It is also assumed that more capacity will be added in the country in solar
than wind. Therefore capacity addition of wind to solar beyond 2026 has been assumed at 1:0.6 (based on the
proportion of the capacity in 2022).
3.6 Capacity of coal and lignite plants is expected to increase from ~185 GW in 2015–16 to ~248 GW in 2021–22,
after accounting for retirement of 5200 MW inefficient coal-based thermal power plants which are more than
25 years old. Between 2022 and 2027, a further retirement of approximately 30 GW of similar coal-based
capacity is expected. In this exercise a constant reduction of approximately 6 GW every year after 2022 has
been assumed, such that total installed capacity reduces to ~218 GW in 2026-27. There may be capacity
additions of supercritical thermal power plants to make up for the plants which will retire but this has not been
considered in the scenario.
3.7 Gas-fired thermal power plants are expected to see a capacity addition of 126 MW in 2016-17 and a further
capacity addition of ~4.3 GW. Commissioning of this capacity has been assumed in 2019-20. This is considering
various gas infrastructure capacities (in terms of LNG terminals as also gas pipelines, especially in eastern
India) are expected to be made available by 2020 (PIB, 2015). Nuclear capacity is expected to witness an
increase to ~9.5 GW in 2021–22 and thereafter capacity addition has been assumed at 1000 MW every year
such that total installed capacity increases to ~14.3 GW by the end of 2026–27. In respect of hydropower, the
capacity addition until 2022 is ~15 GW. As per draft NEP a capacity of 12 GW is likely to be added by 2027. For
the purpose of the present study the same has been phased evenly in each year.
Table 3.2: Installed Capacity under HRES (MW)
Sources 2022 Anticipated 2030
2027 5,33,538
Solar 3,20,123
Wind 1,00,000 2,94,109 2,18,207
Coal 29,969
Gas 60,000 1,76,466 14,380
Nuclear 70,131
Hydro 2,48,513 2,18,207
29,969 29,969
9,580 14,380
58,131 70,131
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quantum jump in renewable capacity addition contemplated by the Government of India , another scenario
with a lower trajectory of RE capacity addition has been considered. The study takes into consideration
capacity addition and generation from wind and solar sources only, considering that the generation from bio
power, small hydro and waste-to-energy is not substantial in the energy mix.
High Renewable Growth Scenario (HRES)
3.4 Under this scenario, renewable capacity addition is given higher priority than other sources of power.
Considering the quantum of renewables planned to be added to the grid, it is here in that by 2027, issues
pertaining to managing the variable and intermittent nature of renewable generation would get addressed.
It is also assumed that energy storage technology would become viable beyond 2027 such that the price of
electricity from renewable energy storage achieves parity with the price of electricity generated from domestic
coal sources at prices below INR 5/kWh.
Capacity Addition
3.5 The high renewable energy scenario is based on the premise that capacity from renewable energy meets
target capacity addition of 175 GW by 2022. Beyond 2022, a capacity addition of 25 GW per year has been
assumed for renewables (wind and solar) until existing capacity meets anticipated demand. To meet unmet
demand beyond 2026, this scenario assumes capacity addition in both wind and solar, presuming that storage
technology has become viable. It is also assumed that more capacity will be added in the country in solar
than wind. Therefore capacity addition of wind to solar beyond 2026 has been assumed at 1:0.6 (based on the
proportion of the capacity in 2022).
3.6 Capacity of coal and lignite plants is expected to increase from ~185 GW in 2015–16 to ~248 GW in 2021–22,
after accounting for retirement of 5200 MW inefficient coal-based thermal power plants which are more than
25 years old. Between 2022 and 2027, a further retirement of approximately 30 GW of similar coal-based
capacity is expected. In this exercise a constant reduction of approximately 6 GW every year after 2022 has
been assumed, such that total installed capacity reduces to ~218 GW in 2026-27. There may be capacity
additions of supercritical thermal power plants to make up for the plants which will retire but this has not been
considered in the scenario.
3.7 Gas-fired thermal power plants are expected to see a capacity addition of 126 MW in 2016-17 and a further
capacity addition of ~4.3 GW. Commissioning of this capacity has been assumed in 2019-20. This is considering
various gas infrastructure capacities (in terms of LNG terminals as also gas pipelines, especially in eastern
India) are expected to be made available by 2020 (PIB, 2015). Nuclear capacity is expected to witness an
increase to ~9.5 GW in 2021–22 and thereafter capacity addition has been assumed at 1000 MW every year
such that total installed capacity increases to ~14.3 GW by the end of 2026–27. In respect of hydropower, the
capacity addition until 2022 is ~15 GW. As per draft NEP a capacity of 12 GW is likely to be added by 2027. For
the purpose of the present study the same has been phased evenly in each year.
Table 3.2: Installed Capacity under HRES (MW)
Sources 2022 Anticipated 2030
2027 5,33,538
Solar 3,20,123
Wind 1,00,000 2,94,109 2,18,207
Coal 29,969
Gas 60,000 1,76,466 14,380
Nuclear 70,131
Hydro 2,48,513 2,18,207
29,969 29,969
9,580 14,380
58,131 70,131
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