Page 7 - Discussion Paper: Modelling Urban Carrying Capacity and Measuring Quality of Life using System Dynamics
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Discussion Paper
run is environmental pollution (these limits or constraints becomes even more relevant since QoL is being termed
could be different for other cities). Another limit could to be an important factor to be considered in developing
be available open land. The falling open land stock makes India’s smart cities.
the city less attractive for new businesses to come in
while businesses continue to close at their normal rate. Bibliography
With increasing construction taking place all along, the
space-based attractiveness for population and land- Agriculture Contingency Plan. n.d. Available atbased attractiveness for new businesses would fall in the agricoop.nic.in/Agriculture%20Contingency%20Plan/
long run. Gujarat/GUJ%2019-Surat%2031.05.2011.pdf>, last
accessed on January 29, 2016.
Thus, our model demonstrates that there are nested
limits coming from environmental pollution, water Casti, J. L. Would-be Worlds: How Simulation is Changing the
availability, and land, which limit the growth of the urban Frontiers of Science. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1997.
centre. It must be noted that the model assumes limitless
supply of food, capital, and energy to the city and still the Central Groundwater Board. Dynamic Groundwater Resources
city faces limits to its growth. Urban planners need to of India. Faridabad, Haryana: Ministry of Water Resources,
be cautious of not considering the external environment River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation, Government
as a limitless source, which is taken as an assumption in of India, 2011. Available atthe model. These multiple limits will restrict growth of Documents/Dynamic-GW-Resources-2011.pdf>, last
urbanization and any of the limits could strike first. Policies accessed on January 25, 2016.
that help overcome one limit could delay the growth
correction but might make the collapse from another limit Central Pollution Control Board. Status Report on Municipal
in the future more severe. Solid Waste Management. New Delhi: Ministry of
Environment & Forests, n.d. Available atDiscussion and Conclusion cpcb.nic.in/divisionsofheadoffice/pcp/MSW_Report.
pdf>, last accessed on January 27, 2016.
The modelling exercise reveals that the urban-
environment system is a highly complex one, having Dhanapal, G., and Chaudhry, P. Open Spaces for Urban
multiple feedback loops with time delays that challenge Sustainability. Sustainability Outlook, March 13, 2012.
human cognition to understand the system’s behaviour Available atover time. However, considering real-world situations to open-spaces-urban-sustainability>, last accessed
be much more complex than what the model suggests, January 26, 2016.
there would always remain a band of uncertainty in the
multiple feedback processes as highlighted in the paper. Forrester, J. W. Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT
For example, the impact of environmental pollution on Press, 1961.
health or the impact of decreasing water tables on people
take effect only after the situation deteriorates to a great Forrester, J. W. Urban Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT
extent and when it becomes difficult for rapid adjustments Press, 1969.
to be made. This makes policy formulation for sustainable
development of urban areas a very challenging exercise. Forrester, J. W. World Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT
The complexity must be appreciated and understood Press, 1971.
before any interventions claiming to better the situation
are implemented. Policy support systems that enable Gallati, J., and Wiesmann, U. System dynamics in
decision makers to test the underlying assumptions before transdisciplinary research for sustainable development.
rolling our interventions must be developed. In Research for Sustainable Development: Foundations,
Experiences, and Perspectives, edited by U Wiesmann and
To conclude, this study demonstrates how QoL could H Hurni, 345–360. Bern: Geographica Bernensia, 2011.
be measured through a composite index that reflects the
overall well-being of the population and health of the city. ICRIER. Service Delivery of Water and Sanitation – Challenges
It also shows that measuring and monitoring QoL could Faced by Metropolitan Cities (Surat City). Surat, Gujrat:
give lead indication about the health of the city. Due to its Surat Municipal Corporation, 2013. http://icrier.org/
composite nature, maintaining QoL could be seen as the pdf/surat_water.pdf, last accessed January 28, 2016.
most holistic way of managing sustainable urbanization. This
IIT Guwahati. Urban Carrying Capacity: Concept &Calculation.
Guwahati, Assam: Department of Civil Engineering, IIT
Guwahati, n.d. Available at coeiitg/Urban%20Carrying%20Capacity.pdf>, last
accessed on January 26, 2016.
FEBRUARY 2016 7
run is environmental pollution (these limits or constraints becomes even more relevant since QoL is being termed
could be different for other cities). Another limit could to be an important factor to be considered in developing
be available open land. The falling open land stock makes India’s smart cities.
the city less attractive for new businesses to come in
while businesses continue to close at their normal rate. Bibliography
With increasing construction taking place all along, the
space-based attractiveness for population and land- Agriculture Contingency Plan. n.d. Available at
long run. Gujarat/GUJ%2019-Surat%2031.05.2011.pdf>, last
accessed on January 29, 2016.
Thus, our model demonstrates that there are nested
limits coming from environmental pollution, water Casti, J. L. Would-be Worlds: How Simulation is Changing the
availability, and land, which limit the growth of the urban Frontiers of Science. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1997.
centre. It must be noted that the model assumes limitless
supply of food, capital, and energy to the city and still the Central Groundwater Board. Dynamic Groundwater Resources
city faces limits to its growth. Urban planners need to of India. Faridabad, Haryana: Ministry of Water Resources,
be cautious of not considering the external environment River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation, Government
as a limitless source, which is taken as an assumption in of India, 2011. Available at
urbanization and any of the limits could strike first. Policies accessed on January 25, 2016.
that help overcome one limit could delay the growth
correction but might make the collapse from another limit Central Pollution Control Board. Status Report on Municipal
in the future more severe. Solid Waste Management. New Delhi: Ministry of
Environment & Forests, n.d. Available at
pdf>, last accessed on January 27, 2016.
The modelling exercise reveals that the urban-
environment system is a highly complex one, having Dhanapal, G., and Chaudhry, P. Open Spaces for Urban
multiple feedback loops with time delays that challenge Sustainability. Sustainability Outlook, March 13, 2012.
human cognition to understand the system’s behaviour Available at
be much more complex than what the model suggests, January 26, 2016.
there would always remain a band of uncertainty in the
multiple feedback processes as highlighted in the paper. Forrester, J. W. Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT
For example, the impact of environmental pollution on Press, 1961.
health or the impact of decreasing water tables on people
take effect only after the situation deteriorates to a great Forrester, J. W. Urban Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT
extent and when it becomes difficult for rapid adjustments Press, 1969.
to be made. This makes policy formulation for sustainable
development of urban areas a very challenging exercise. Forrester, J. W. World Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT
The complexity must be appreciated and understood Press, 1971.
before any interventions claiming to better the situation
are implemented. Policy support systems that enable Gallati, J., and Wiesmann, U. System dynamics in
decision makers to test the underlying assumptions before transdisciplinary research for sustainable development.
rolling our interventions must be developed. In Research for Sustainable Development: Foundations,
Experiences, and Perspectives, edited by U Wiesmann and
To conclude, this study demonstrates how QoL could H Hurni, 345–360. Bern: Geographica Bernensia, 2011.
be measured through a composite index that reflects the
overall well-being of the population and health of the city. ICRIER. Service Delivery of Water and Sanitation – Challenges
It also shows that measuring and monitoring QoL could Faced by Metropolitan Cities (Surat City). Surat, Gujrat:
give lead indication about the health of the city. Due to its Surat Municipal Corporation, 2013. http://icrier.org/
composite nature, maintaining QoL could be seen as the pdf/surat_water.pdf, last accessed January 28, 2016.
most holistic way of managing sustainable urbanization. This
IIT Guwahati. Urban Carrying Capacity: Concept &Calculation.
Guwahati, Assam: Department of Civil Engineering, IIT
Guwahati, n.d. Available at
accessed on January 26, 2016.
FEBRUARY 2016 7
