Page 5 - Transitions in Indian Electricity Sector- A Report by TERI
P. 5
TRANSITIONS IN INDIAN E LECTRICITY SECTOR 2017–2030
2026-27, and 2029–30 ranges from 74% to 76% as compared to 73% in 2015–16. The total installed capacity
of renewable energy sources is likely to be 284 GW in 2030 and share of renewable would be 16% in that year.
Table ES-1
Generation (BU) Installed Capacity (GW)
High RE Scenario Low RE Scenario High RE Scenario Low RE Scenario
2021- 2026- 2029- 2021- 2026- 2029- 2021- 2026- 2029- 2021- 2026- 2029-
22 27 30 22 27 30 22 27 30 22 27 30
Renewable 274 678 1102 186 379 511 160 470 853 110 210 284
Energy (W+S)
Non RE 236 303 310 236 303 310 98 114 114 98 114 114
excluding Coal
Coal 1182 1528 1763 1270 1827 2354 248 218 218 249 218 474
Total 1692 2509 3175 1692 2509 3175 506 802 1185 457 542 872
11. Table ES-1 shows the generation and installed capacity in the period till 2030 under the two scenarios.
12. There are many technical options for balancing demand and supply in view of the demand-side transitions as
well as the changing supply mix due to likely level of achievement of Renewable Energy targets. Altering the
flexibility of existing coal-based fleet to achieve faster ramp up and ramp down rates, utilization of the currently
highly underutilized gas plants to provide peaking power if gas is available at cost effective rates, coordinated use
of storage and pumped storage, creation of new storage capacity through advanced battery-based solutions
are various alternatives for this purpose. Utilization of hydro power imports from the neighbouring countries
would be yet another option to be looked into. The mix of choices will depend on their cost economics and
grid friendliness. The evolving cost economics and consumers’ paying capacity would also be a crucial factor
in determining the extent of adoption of available options for balancing the intermittent renewable electricity
supply. In the long run, the weighted cost of electricity supply from intermittent renewables and from the
balancing/storage technologies, as compared to the cost of electricity from coal-based power plants, would
determine the quantum of renewable electricity which could be absorbed in the grid and/or paid for by the
electricity distribution companies. The success of current initiatives such as UDAY would create requisite
environment for ensuring that electricity distribution companies operate on a commercial basis and take
electricity procurement decisions within an economic framework.
13. We believe that while the ‘High Renewables Scenario’ is not a certainty, it is indeed a reasonable probability.
The challenges in this regard are well recognized and point out the need for ensuring timely implementation of
transmission system expansion, including Green Energy Corridors, improved forecasting of renewable power
as well as demand, supportive policies and regulations, alignment of national-and state-level policies and
implementation plans, added emphasis on development and operational management of storage technologies,
increased flexibility of generation fleet, demand-side management (including Demand Response Measures
for rapid demand-side responses to address supply-side intermittency), developing domestic manufacturing
capability and O&M support.
14. Considering the dynamic nature of the transitions that are taking place, it would be prudent to review the
evolving scenario on a periodic basis, taking note of the incremental growth in electricity demand, changes
in the structure of economy, technological developments in generation and storage technologies, balancing
and ancillary services, grid infrastructure, and the associated techno-economic considerations.
15. India has a 10-year window of opportunity to overcome the challenges to large scale and economically
preferential adoption of renewable energy. The prime consideration for utilization of renewable energy
thereafter would be whether the price of ‘despatchable renewable electricity’ i.e. renewable + balancing
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2026-27, and 2029–30 ranges from 74% to 76% as compared to 73% in 2015–16. The total installed capacity
of renewable energy sources is likely to be 284 GW in 2030 and share of renewable would be 16% in that year.
Table ES-1
Generation (BU) Installed Capacity (GW)
High RE Scenario Low RE Scenario High RE Scenario Low RE Scenario
2021- 2026- 2029- 2021- 2026- 2029- 2021- 2026- 2029- 2021- 2026- 2029-
22 27 30 22 27 30 22 27 30 22 27 30
Renewable 274 678 1102 186 379 511 160 470 853 110 210 284
Energy (W+S)
Non RE 236 303 310 236 303 310 98 114 114 98 114 114
excluding Coal
Coal 1182 1528 1763 1270 1827 2354 248 218 218 249 218 474
Total 1692 2509 3175 1692 2509 3175 506 802 1185 457 542 872
11. Table ES-1 shows the generation and installed capacity in the period till 2030 under the two scenarios.
12. There are many technical options for balancing demand and supply in view of the demand-side transitions as
well as the changing supply mix due to likely level of achievement of Renewable Energy targets. Altering the
flexibility of existing coal-based fleet to achieve faster ramp up and ramp down rates, utilization of the currently
highly underutilized gas plants to provide peaking power if gas is available at cost effective rates, coordinated use
of storage and pumped storage, creation of new storage capacity through advanced battery-based solutions
are various alternatives for this purpose. Utilization of hydro power imports from the neighbouring countries
would be yet another option to be looked into. The mix of choices will depend on their cost economics and
grid friendliness. The evolving cost economics and consumers’ paying capacity would also be a crucial factor
in determining the extent of adoption of available options for balancing the intermittent renewable electricity
supply. In the long run, the weighted cost of electricity supply from intermittent renewables and from the
balancing/storage technologies, as compared to the cost of electricity from coal-based power plants, would
determine the quantum of renewable electricity which could be absorbed in the grid and/or paid for by the
electricity distribution companies. The success of current initiatives such as UDAY would create requisite
environment for ensuring that electricity distribution companies operate on a commercial basis and take
electricity procurement decisions within an economic framework.
13. We believe that while the ‘High Renewables Scenario’ is not a certainty, it is indeed a reasonable probability.
The challenges in this regard are well recognized and point out the need for ensuring timely implementation of
transmission system expansion, including Green Energy Corridors, improved forecasting of renewable power
as well as demand, supportive policies and regulations, alignment of national-and state-level policies and
implementation plans, added emphasis on development and operational management of storage technologies,
increased flexibility of generation fleet, demand-side management (including Demand Response Measures
for rapid demand-side responses to address supply-side intermittency), developing domestic manufacturing
capability and O&M support.
14. Considering the dynamic nature of the transitions that are taking place, it would be prudent to review the
evolving scenario on a periodic basis, taking note of the incremental growth in electricity demand, changes
in the structure of economy, technological developments in generation and storage technologies, balancing
and ancillary services, grid infrastructure, and the associated techno-economic considerations.
15. India has a 10-year window of opportunity to overcome the challenges to large scale and economically
preferential adoption of renewable energy. The prime consideration for utilization of renewable energy
thereafter would be whether the price of ‘despatchable renewable electricity’ i.e. renewable + balancing
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