Page 4 - Transitions in Indian Electricity Sector- A Report by TERI
P. 4
TRANSITIONS IN INDIAN E LECTRICITY SECTOR 2017–2030
5. The supply side has also been studied up to 2029–30. The capacity additions of non-RE power up to 2026–27
have by and large been taken from the draft National Electricity Plan (December 2016); with planned addition
of coal, nuclear, hydro, and gas-based capacities of 50,025 MW, 7600 MW, 27,330 MW, and 4,340 MW,
respectively. In case of coal-based power stations, the study has accounted for retirement of approximately
5.2 GW up to 2021–22 (as envisaged in draft NEP) and approximately 30 GW of capacity during the subsequent
five years based on plant age, obsolescence of technology, and environmental considerations.
6. Two stylized supply scenarios have been considered - a ‘High Renewables Scenario’ (HRES) and a ‘Low
Renewables Scenario’ (LRES). In the High Renewables Scenario, the RE capacity increases from the prevailing
level of about 50 GW to 175 GW and 275 GW in 2021–22 and 2025–26 respectively, & thereafter to 853
GW in 2029–30. For such a growth to be achieved, it is imperative that there is coordinated effort at the
Central and State levels to ensure adequacy of balancing capacity, ancillary services, grid strengthening, and
above all, requisite paying capacity of the electricity distribution companies. It is further assumed in the High
Renewables Scenario that the price of firm electricity from intermittent renewables (i.e., weighted price of
renewable and balancing electricity) would be about `5/kWh (USD 70/MWh) beyond 2027 which means that
it would be competitive with coal-based electricity, and would account for all new capacity addition beyond
that date. Considering the challenges in this regard and the capacity addition of only about 10.5 GW of wind
and solar capacity having been achieved in the last 2 years, a ‘Low Renewables Scenario’ has also been
considered. In this scenario, the RE capacity addition has been taken as 75 GW during the first 5 years and 100
GW in the 5 years thereafter. The aggregate RE capacity in this scenario reaches up to 125 GW in 2021-22, 225
GW in 2026–27, and 284 GW in 2029–30.
7. In both the scenarios, common assumptions have been made in regard to Plant Load Factor (PLF) and
Capacity Utilization Factor (CUF) of electricity generation plants. PLF/CUF of nuclear and hydro plants has
been considered as 75% and 35% respectively, based on past performance. An average CUF in respect of
solar plants has been taken as 19% in line with CERC’s order regarding levelised generic tariff for FY 2016-17. A
reduction of 0.8% in generation from solar plants, reported by NCPRE and NISE as internationally acceptable
benchmark1, has been considered on a year on year basis. In case of wind-based plants, considering the
present performance, technological improvements and the availability of wind potential in the sites which
remain to be developed, a CUF of 25% has been considered. In case of coal, the energy that is likely to be
met by the coal plants has been worked out as residual energy requirement after taking into account the
availability from all other conventional and renewable energy sources.
8. These energy balance studies indicate that in the two scenarios, the average PLF of coal-based fleet is likely to
decline initially from the current level of ~59% to ~50%-53% in the year 2018–19 and thereafter it follows an
increasing trajectory touching ~ 78-80% in 2024–25/2025–26. The PLF of coal-based plants is capped at this
level in view of needs to meet requirement of diversity of demand, planned maintenance, and forced outages.
Consequently, existing and under construction coal capacity would be able to meet demand till 2025–26.
9. In the ‘High Renewables Scenario’, the remainder of the demand in the subsequent years of study is considered
to be catered by renewables in view of the assumption that the price of renewable + balancing electricity
would be about Rs.5 per kWh and competitive with the price of electricity from coal. In this scenario, the share
of electricity generated from intermittent renewables would show a remarkable increase from the present
level of ~ 5.6% to ~ 16%, 27% and 34% in 2022, 2027, and 2030, respectively, and the share of coal-based
electricity generation would reduce from ~ 73 % in 2015-16 to ~ 70%, 61%, and 56% in the year 2021–22,
2026–27, and 2029–30, respectively.
10. In the ‘Low Renewables Scenario’, the additional requirement of supply beyond 2025–26 is assumed to be
largely met by new coal capacity, and to a limited extent from new renewable capacity. In this scenario,
256 GW of new coal capacity is added by 2030 and the share of coal-based electricity generation in 2021–22,
1 All India Survey of Photovoltaic Module Reliability : 2014 (NCPRE and NISE)
|4|
5. The supply side has also been studied up to 2029–30. The capacity additions of non-RE power up to 2026–27
have by and large been taken from the draft National Electricity Plan (December 2016); with planned addition
of coal, nuclear, hydro, and gas-based capacities of 50,025 MW, 7600 MW, 27,330 MW, and 4,340 MW,
respectively. In case of coal-based power stations, the study has accounted for retirement of approximately
5.2 GW up to 2021–22 (as envisaged in draft NEP) and approximately 30 GW of capacity during the subsequent
five years based on plant age, obsolescence of technology, and environmental considerations.
6. Two stylized supply scenarios have been considered - a ‘High Renewables Scenario’ (HRES) and a ‘Low
Renewables Scenario’ (LRES). In the High Renewables Scenario, the RE capacity increases from the prevailing
level of about 50 GW to 175 GW and 275 GW in 2021–22 and 2025–26 respectively, & thereafter to 853
GW in 2029–30. For such a growth to be achieved, it is imperative that there is coordinated effort at the
Central and State levels to ensure adequacy of balancing capacity, ancillary services, grid strengthening, and
above all, requisite paying capacity of the electricity distribution companies. It is further assumed in the High
Renewables Scenario that the price of firm electricity from intermittent renewables (i.e., weighted price of
renewable and balancing electricity) would be about `5/kWh (USD 70/MWh) beyond 2027 which means that
it would be competitive with coal-based electricity, and would account for all new capacity addition beyond
that date. Considering the challenges in this regard and the capacity addition of only about 10.5 GW of wind
and solar capacity having been achieved in the last 2 years, a ‘Low Renewables Scenario’ has also been
considered. In this scenario, the RE capacity addition has been taken as 75 GW during the first 5 years and 100
GW in the 5 years thereafter. The aggregate RE capacity in this scenario reaches up to 125 GW in 2021-22, 225
GW in 2026–27, and 284 GW in 2029–30.
7. In both the scenarios, common assumptions have been made in regard to Plant Load Factor (PLF) and
Capacity Utilization Factor (CUF) of electricity generation plants. PLF/CUF of nuclear and hydro plants has
been considered as 75% and 35% respectively, based on past performance. An average CUF in respect of
solar plants has been taken as 19% in line with CERC’s order regarding levelised generic tariff for FY 2016-17. A
reduction of 0.8% in generation from solar plants, reported by NCPRE and NISE as internationally acceptable
benchmark1, has been considered on a year on year basis. In case of wind-based plants, considering the
present performance, technological improvements and the availability of wind potential in the sites which
remain to be developed, a CUF of 25% has been considered. In case of coal, the energy that is likely to be
met by the coal plants has been worked out as residual energy requirement after taking into account the
availability from all other conventional and renewable energy sources.
8. These energy balance studies indicate that in the two scenarios, the average PLF of coal-based fleet is likely to
decline initially from the current level of ~59% to ~50%-53% in the year 2018–19 and thereafter it follows an
increasing trajectory touching ~ 78-80% in 2024–25/2025–26. The PLF of coal-based plants is capped at this
level in view of needs to meet requirement of diversity of demand, planned maintenance, and forced outages.
Consequently, existing and under construction coal capacity would be able to meet demand till 2025–26.
9. In the ‘High Renewables Scenario’, the remainder of the demand in the subsequent years of study is considered
to be catered by renewables in view of the assumption that the price of renewable + balancing electricity
would be about Rs.5 per kWh and competitive with the price of electricity from coal. In this scenario, the share
of electricity generated from intermittent renewables would show a remarkable increase from the present
level of ~ 5.6% to ~ 16%, 27% and 34% in 2022, 2027, and 2030, respectively, and the share of coal-based
electricity generation would reduce from ~ 73 % in 2015-16 to ~ 70%, 61%, and 56% in the year 2021–22,
2026–27, and 2029–30, respectively.
10. In the ‘Low Renewables Scenario’, the additional requirement of supply beyond 2025–26 is assumed to be
largely met by new coal capacity, and to a limited extent from new renewable capacity. In this scenario,
256 GW of new coal capacity is added by 2030 and the share of coal-based electricity generation in 2021–22,
1 All India Survey of Photovoltaic Module Reliability : 2014 (NCPRE and NISE)
|4|
