Page 1 - Discussion Paper: Modelling Urban Carrying Capacity and Measuring Quality of Life using System Dynamics
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DISCUSSION PAPERT E R I P o l i c y B r i e f February 2016
The Energy and Resources Institute
CONTENTS Modelling Urban Carrying
Capacity and Measuring Quality
• Introduction 1 of Life using System Dynamics
• Research Methodology 2
• Model Description 2 An examination of the dynamics of urban growth,
• Simulation Results 4 capacity constraints, and impact on people’s quality
• Discussion and Conclusion 7 of life
• Bibliography 7
• Annexure 8 Introduction
9
• Graphical functions 11 An outcome of urban growth is concentration of population and businesses.
• Sensitivity Runs 14 As the population of an urban area increases, so do diverse concerns and
• Full Model Structure problems including issues of servicing large number of people with existing,
limited resources. Environmental problems, particularly pollution and water
Authors scarcity, have become more prominent and worrisome in recent times and
Mihir Mathur, Associate Fellow, TERI are central issues for urban planners and decision makers. To address these
E-mail: mihir.mathur@teri.res.in complex problems, practical approaches that incorporate the concept of
carrying capacity into managing urban development are needed. This paper
Kabir Sharma, Research Associate, TERI presents a system dynamics (SD) model highlighting the drivers of urbanization,
E-mail: kabir.sharma@teri.res.in its impact on carrying capacity, and the consequent multiple feedbacks that
impacts urbanization’s growth.
Data Support
Sourabh Manuja, Associate Fellow, TERI Carrying Capacity
Kripali Vikram, Research Associate, TERI
Sourabh Jain, PhD Student, TERI University Urban areas are entities that have great potential of exceeding the local carrying
capacity because they require enormous concentrations of food, water,
Advisor energy, and material in a small area. The concentration requirements may
Dr Ritu Mathur, Director, TERI go far beyond the level provided by the local carrying capacity. Also, this high
degree of consumption is associated with huge quantity of waste production
Project Title: TERI–Shell Joint Study and consequent environmental pollution in the concentrated region, which
Agreement on India’s Medium- to Long- may not get properly assimilated within the local carrying capacity.
term Energy Choices.
The concept of carrying capacity was pioneered by Thomas Malthus in the year
The Energy and Resources Institute 1798. (E. Rees) In simple terms, the carrying capacity of an area can be defined
Darbari Seth Block, IHC Complex as the maximum number of people that can be supported by the environment
Lodhi Road, New Delhi- 110 003 there through optimum utilization of the available resources. This concept
Tel. 2468 2100 or 4150 4900 holds a crucial position in determining the quality and state of an ecosystem with
Fax. 2468 2144 or 2468 2145 respect to the pressures meted out by the demands of the dwelling population. It
India +91 Delhi (0) 11 is basically an ecological concept that also embraces socioeconomic parameters.
If this limit is crossed, then nature reacts by imposing pressures that resist the
www.teriin.org abrupt growth and development (IIT Guwahati). For the purpose of our study,
carrying capacity has been defined as:
Suggested Citation
Mathur, M and Sharma, K. 2016. Modelling Urban Carrying Capacity and
Measuring Quality of Life Using System Dynamics. New Delhi : TERI.
The Energy and Resources Institute
CONTENTS Modelling Urban Carrying
Capacity and Measuring Quality
• Introduction 1 of Life using System Dynamics
• Research Methodology 2
• Model Description 2 An examination of the dynamics of urban growth,
• Simulation Results 4 capacity constraints, and impact on people’s quality
• Discussion and Conclusion 7 of life
• Bibliography 7
• Annexure 8 Introduction
9
• Graphical functions 11 An outcome of urban growth is concentration of population and businesses.
• Sensitivity Runs 14 As the population of an urban area increases, so do diverse concerns and
• Full Model Structure problems including issues of servicing large number of people with existing,
limited resources. Environmental problems, particularly pollution and water
Authors scarcity, have become more prominent and worrisome in recent times and
Mihir Mathur, Associate Fellow, TERI are central issues for urban planners and decision makers. To address these
E-mail: mihir.mathur@teri.res.in complex problems, practical approaches that incorporate the concept of
carrying capacity into managing urban development are needed. This paper
Kabir Sharma, Research Associate, TERI presents a system dynamics (SD) model highlighting the drivers of urbanization,
E-mail: kabir.sharma@teri.res.in its impact on carrying capacity, and the consequent multiple feedbacks that
impacts urbanization’s growth.
Data Support
Sourabh Manuja, Associate Fellow, TERI Carrying Capacity
Kripali Vikram, Research Associate, TERI
Sourabh Jain, PhD Student, TERI University Urban areas are entities that have great potential of exceeding the local carrying
capacity because they require enormous concentrations of food, water,
Advisor energy, and material in a small area. The concentration requirements may
Dr Ritu Mathur, Director, TERI go far beyond the level provided by the local carrying capacity. Also, this high
degree of consumption is associated with huge quantity of waste production
Project Title: TERI–Shell Joint Study and consequent environmental pollution in the concentrated region, which
Agreement on India’s Medium- to Long- may not get properly assimilated within the local carrying capacity.
term Energy Choices.
The concept of carrying capacity was pioneered by Thomas Malthus in the year
The Energy and Resources Institute 1798. (E. Rees) In simple terms, the carrying capacity of an area can be defined
Darbari Seth Block, IHC Complex as the maximum number of people that can be supported by the environment
Lodhi Road, New Delhi- 110 003 there through optimum utilization of the available resources. This concept
Tel. 2468 2100 or 4150 4900 holds a crucial position in determining the quality and state of an ecosystem with
Fax. 2468 2144 or 2468 2145 respect to the pressures meted out by the demands of the dwelling population. It
India +91 Delhi (0) 11 is basically an ecological concept that also embraces socioeconomic parameters.
If this limit is crossed, then nature reacts by imposing pressures that resist the
www.teriin.org abrupt growth and development (IIT Guwahati). For the purpose of our study,
carrying capacity has been defined as:
Suggested Citation
Mathur, M and Sharma, K. 2016. Modelling Urban Carrying Capacity and
Measuring Quality of Life Using System Dynamics. New Delhi : TERI.
