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| Energy scenario in South Asia Amit Kumar Energy Technology News, Issue 1, October 2000 The South Asian region, which comprises Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, is home to 1.3 billion people, close to a quarter of the world’s population. The region is currently experiencing a rapid growth in energy demand, concomitant with economic growth and industrialization. Adequate energy supply is, therefore, a major challenge facing the economies in the region. Economic growth in South Asia averaged 5.3% a year between 1990 and 1997 with India and Pakistan recording the highest growth rate of 5.4% and 4.8%, respectively, in the same period (IEA. 1999). The total primary energy supply in South Asia, which is indicative of the total energy consumption, increased at the rate of 3.6% annually during that period. In 1997/98, the total primary energy supply in the region, including 250.7 MTOE (million tonnes of oil equivalent), renewable energy was 556.5 MTOE, of which India claimed the dominant share, accounting for about 88% of the total energy consumption. The total primary energy supply, including renewable energy, is expected to increase to 1411 MTOE in 2010/11, with biomass accounting for 28% of the total energy consumption. While the average oil intensity in the world has declined from 0.19 TOE (tonnes of oil equivalent) for every 1000 US dollars in 1990/91 to 0.13 TOE in 1997/98, oil intensity in the region increased from 0.17 TOE to 0.19 TOE in the same period. Despite the rapid growth in energy demand, the average per capita energy consumption in the region is lowest in the world (Figure 1). In 1997/98, the average per capita energy consumption was 0.37 TOE compared to the world average of 1.7 TOE. Though the regional average has increased in the recent years, it has remained far below the world average; in Bangladesh and Nepal, it continues to remain far below even the regional average. A similar trend is observed in the case of per capita oil consumption, with a regional average of 0.08 TOE compared to the world average of 0.60 TOE (1997/98 figures). The regional per capita electricity consumption of 219 kWh was also far below the world average of 2258 kWh in 1997/98, illustrating the need for large-scale rural and urban electrification (Figure 2). The fuel structure amongst the countries of the region varies significantly. Coal constitutes as much as 30% of the total commercial energy requirement in India. In Bangladesh, oil (53%) and natural gas (47%) are the dominant fuels (the shares refer to the total energy consumption). The pattern is similar in Pakistan (oil constitutes 46% and natural gas 38% of the total energy consumption). Sri Lanka is largely dependent on oil (87%), whereas Nepal used both oil, which is largely imported, and hydroelectricity. A significant change in the fuel structure in recent years has been the increase in the share of natural gas, because of the important gas discoveries made in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh and the environmental considerations arising from the large quantities of coal consumed in the region. At present, gas accounts for only about eight per cent of the total energy consumption in India whereas it is the main source of energy in Bangladesh.
Energy supply Figure 3 illustrates the self-sufficiency in energy, which is expressed as energy production as a percentage of the total primary energy supply. Self-sufficiency in the region declined from 86% in 1990/91 to 81% in 1997/98, and this trend is likely to continue in the future in light of the increase in energy demand thereby necessitating larger imports. Therefore, indigenous energy supply needs to be urgently enhanced. South Asia accounts for less than 0.5% of the world’s crude oil reserves and produced 40.5 million tonnes in 1997/98. India’s recoverable reserves of crude oil and natural gas have declined continuously after peaking at 806 million tonnes and 735 billion cubic metres, respectively, in 1991/92 (TERI. 1999). The current balance recoverable reserves in India are estimated at 726 million tonnes of crude oil and 692 billion cubic metres of natural gas. Most of the crude oil production in South Asia is accounted for by India, which, in 1997/98, accounted for 93% (38 million tonnes) of the total oil production in the region whereas Pakistan accounted for only 7% (3 million tonnes) in the same year. India is also the largest consumer and importer of crude oil and petroleum products. Between 1990 and 1996, the consumption of petroleum products grew at the rate of 6.7% in the region, with Nepal and Sri Lanka recording the highest growth rates of 18.9% and 9.8%, respectively. This trend is likely to continue in the future because of the increased demand for oil as a transportation fuel and as fuel for the new oil-fired power plants, and also because of the need to reduce a near-total dependency on hydro power in the case of Sri Lanka.
Figure 1 Per capita energy consumption
South Asia contains about 1.44 trillion cubic metres or about one per cent of the total gas reserves in the world. Of the total gas produced, 48% is accounted for by India, 36% by Pakistan, and 16% by Bangladesh. The countries of the region have so far been self-reliant in natural gas. However, with the demand for natural gas projected to increase to 77 billion cubic metres by 2010/11 (IEA. 1998), an increase in production and imports would be required. The total power generation in South Asia in 1997/98 was 541 TWh, of which about 61% was coal-based, 19% was from hydroelectric plants, 10% from natural gas, 7% from oil, 2% from nuclear, and less than 1% from renewable energy sources. The share of natural gas is likely to increase in the future due to environmental concerns. In India, the total installed capacity in 1997/98 was 89 GW, which increased to 91 GW in 1998/99, of which 73% is thermal, 24% hydel, and 3% nuclear-based. The total power generated was 463 TWh in 1997/98, which was about 30% below the demand, thereby necessitating hydro power imports of 1440 GWh in 1990/91 and 1547 GWh in 1997/98. Table 1 Power generation (TWh)
Source IEA. 1999
Energy outlook for India The demand and supply forecasts for coal, oil, natural gas, and power are given in Tables 2–5. The IEA (International Energy Agency) has estimated that the power generating capacity would increase from 106 GW to 212 GW between 1996 and 2010.
Table 2 Coal demand and supply forecasts for India (million tonnes)
Source Planning Commission. 1998
Table 3 Oil demand and supply in India (million barrels per day)
Source Planning Commission. 1998
Source Planning Commission. 1998
Table 5 Demand and supply forecasts for power in India (GW)
a
Peaking capability has been calculated by multiplying the installed capacity by the
peaking capability factor, which is taken as 72% for thermal, 75% for nuclear, 86.5% for
hydro in the case of new capacity and 60.3% for thermal and nuclear and 91.55% for hydro
in the case of existing capacity. Also, about 13 GW of capacity is expected to be lost during this period as a result of closing down of old power plants. The share of gas-based generation is expected to increase from 11% in 1996/97 to 12% in 2010/11 as these plants have low capital costs and a shorter gestation period. The share of coal-based generation would remain unchanged, largely because of the abundant reserves. The share of oil-based generation, however, is expected to decline from 7.5% to 5.6%. The share of hydro power generation is also expected to decline from 19% in 1996/97 to 17% in 2010/11. Though power generation from renewable energy sources is expected to increase significantly, it would continue to constitute a very small share (0.74%) of the total generation mix.
Per capita energy consumption and carbon emissions India’s per capita energy consumption and carbon emissions are relatively low. In 1997, per capita energy consumption in India was 12.4 million Btu (British thermal unit), compared to 351.9 million Btu in the US and a world average of 64.8 million Btu. Per capita carbon emissions are also relatively low. In 1997, India emitted 250 kg of carbon per person, which was approximately one-quarter of the world average and less than 0.05% of that in the US. With continued urbanization, a shift from non-commercial to commercial fuels, increased use of motorized vehicles, and prolonged use of older and more inefficient coal-fired plants, these values are expected to increase. In fact, due to rapid industrialization, per capita emissions are expected to triple between 1990 and 2020. The absolute increase in emissions will partially be a function of the degree to which coal serves as a major energy source.
Renewable energy scenario During the past quarter of a century, significant thrust has been given to R&D, demonstration, and implementation of a variety of renewable energy technologies in different sectors. Renewable energy, on the one hand, is seen as an effective option for meeting a society’s ever-increasing energy demands. On the other hand, it also provides a degree of national energy security. In recent years, the rationale has been further buttressed by the environmental imperative. Local and regional environmental problems associated with conventional energy sources have provided a strong argument for enhancing the role of renewable energy within the broad framework of national energy development plans. Undoubtedly, renewable energy has a role to play in the socio-economic development of the communities. Though such renewable energy technologies as biogas plants and improved cookstoves have been available in India since the late 1940s, the programme itself was initiated on a very moderate scale in the wake of the energy crisis of 1973. To provide focused attention to this sector, a separate DNES (Department of Non-conventional Energy Sources) was also created in 1982, under the Ministry of Energy, which was to be on par with departments of coal and power. After a decade, in 1992, the DNES was upgraded to the status of a full-fledged ministry, namely the MNES (Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources) to increase the deployment of nearly commercial or already commercial renewable energy technologies. Until mid-1993, the MNES was organized broadly based on technology; individual technologies were promoted through design and development support, and through the establishment of large-scale demonstration programmes. A number of technology-support centres were created to promote technological upgradation by manufacturers and to certify the quality of devices procured by the government. In order to focus on commercialization and market orientation and to seek greater involvement of the private sector, the MNES was restructured in 1993 on the basis of end-use applications of technologies through horizontal integration of different technologies. The emphasis has now shifted from direct financial incentives (e.g. subsidies) to indirect fiscal incentives (e.g. low interest loans, financing packages for consumers, reduced tariff and taxes, and viable power purchase prices). This has stimulated private sector investment in wind and solar photovoltaic power plants and has encouraged manufacturers and financing intermediaries to address the needs of consumers in their product design and system development. Table 6 shows the achievements in the field of renewable energy technologies. Table 6 Status of renewable energy technologies in India as on 30 April 2000
Source MNES. 2000 The draft renewable energy policy of the Government of India sets the following targets to be achieved by 2012.
References
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30 million more households to have improved cookstoves